Google現在也能預測流感

作者: Jas / 發表於 2008-11-12

Google Flu Trends

紐約時報的最新一篇報導提到Google現在也能預測流感:

Tests of the new Web tool from Google.org, the company’s philanthropic unit, suggest that it may be able to detect regional outbreaks of the flu a week to 10 days before they are reported by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

而且,Google的預測,甚至比美國疾病管制局(CDC)還要早一星期至十天。

以下即為Google與美國疾病管制局對流感的預測對照圖表:

Google Flu Trends

就預測精確度而言,Google的預測結果幾乎與疾管局相差無幾。也因此,在防疫上,Google早疾管局一星期至十天的預測速度,也更具價值。

紐約時報所報導可用來預測流感的Google新服務,其實就是Google Flu Trends

Google Flu Trends提到他們主要是利用分析個別區域的搜尋數據來進行流感預測:

We've found that certain search terms are good indicators of flu activity. Google Flu Trends uses aggregated Google search data to estimate flu activity in your state up to two weeks faster than traditional flu surveillance systems.

這也就是說,沒有資訊時,要蒐集資訊,等到資訊量夠大時,就看Data mining如何展現資訊應有的力量了。





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